Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts

Monday, September 26, 2011

Adding Up The Death Toll





Over at Popular Resistance, Professor Mazin Qumsiyeh of Bethlehem and Birzeit Universities is supporting Mahmoud Abbas as he speaks in front of the UN to ask for a Palestinian state to be recognized. The professor is not as pleased with Netanyahu's speech, commenting that he was "just amazed at how many lies can be packed in one speech".

He then posts an extensive chart, meant to show the imbalance of power between Israel and the Palestinians. I don't plan to cover all of this, or go into it too extensively (for example, under the precise term "Nature" we get Colonizer/Occuper vs. Occupied People, a lie too big to be unpacked in a blog post. This section, however, caught my eye:

All values show for Israel first, then the Palestinians
Casualties (63 years), 6000 killed/75,000 killed, 20,000 injured/300,000 injured
Abducted/jailed30/400,000
Homes demolished 0/50,000
Refugees created 0/>6 million people


And it occurs to me, looking at this, that it represents a number of the things that are wrong and false with the way that the conflict is discussed by those who hate Israel. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a professor at Birzeit University, but I was a history major, and I like to think, something of a critical thinker, and my alarm bells are going off as I look at this.

I think I'm going to need to break this down into three separate posts, so let's start today with the casualties. This chart does not indicate a divide between military, civilian, and paramilitary, but the Israeli numbers are rather interesting. Clearly that 6,000 cannot include military deaths, in which case we run well over that before getting to 1973, so presumably this covers civilian deaths. Assuming that this is an honest chart, we are then to presume that the appalling 75,000 figure applies to Palestinian civilians? It seems we have to presume that.

I spent a while trying to make this work. Now, admittedly, I did not use any sophisticated source material, this is all from popular sites on the Internet. However, I believe that the only way to make the numbers add up is to sit down and enter in all Palestinian loss of life in any conflict, since 1948, using both combatant and non-combatant deaths, and using the top numbers in any given conflict where it is disputed. So, for example, Black September is included in the count, and the number used must be the high one of 20,000, not the low count of 3,400.

Now, is this fair reckoning? By my estimation, there are two problems with it, one being that Israeli military deaths are being excluded, and Palestinian combatant deaths counted in, also that the Palestinian count include people killed by non-Israelis who were not acting for Israel in any way. Conceivably, those who died in Black September could be considered victims of the overall conflict, but that line of reasoning is going to get us into trouble down the road, when we start looking at that refugee claim more closely.

But by any reckoning, leaving Palestinian combatants in and Israeli combatants (and diplomatic personnel, and various others) out, which is the only way I can make sense of these numbers, is deeply dishonest, and serves an obvious agenda.

Next time: 0 Homes Destroyed? Or, "But What About Kfar Etzion?"

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Jeff Prager's Lies and Damned Lies

Jeff Prager of Minnesota, a certified (and certifiable) Israel hater with way too much time on his hands, spent hours this week attempting to manipulate a World Jewish Congress opinion poll. After 1,700 clicks, he posted the results on his facebook page, declaring unequivocally that the World Jewish Congress™ CONFIRMS American Public Opinion is AGAINST Israel.

Little Jeffy declared:

"Breaking News! Special Polls conducted by the venerable World Jewish Congress™ established in 1936 certify that American Public Opinion is squarely against Israeli policy. These Polls, certified by the World Jewish Congress™ leave no room for doubt folks. We should cease and desist from further support both militarily and financially provided through our tax dollars for the State of Israel immediately, if not sooner. These polls are available at the World Jewish Congress™ web site at the link below and the screen shots below prove beyond a shadow of a doubt it's time to release the leach."

The children from Jeffy's pre-school immediately jumped on the bandwagon, giggling back and forth to each other. Jeffy helpfully offered tips on furthering the fraud

Jeff Prager
Certified World Jewish Congress™ Poll results don't lie!
Wed at 7:39pm

Betty Molchany
Jeff, I was thinking about you on the long way home from work elsewhere. I enjoyed all your messages, especially on these polls. How did the numbers get this way? You are a miracle worker. :-)
Wed at 10:04pm

Jeff Prager
A bazillion little clicks from Minneapolis.
Wed at 10:06pm

Jeff Prager
Some of the numbers are even higher now.

When I first started it took 2-3 clicks to move a percentage point. Now it takes 50-80 clicks. They won't soon move down again, I'm monitoring them hourly.
Wed at 10:07pm

El Duce
I will have to start clicking on that poll, I am openly against Israel, and there conquest towards genocide.
Wed at 10:36pm

Betty Molchany
Jeff, I posted a link to your comments. You are my buddy. And am I glad.
Wed at 10:36pm

Jeff Prager
If anyone is interested in clicking, please choose questions that I haven't listed above. I'm monitoring the above questions and haven't got the time to tackle them all so I chose the ones most important to me. There are a dozen or so polls though.

By the way, all you have to do is click the "vote" button and use the "back" button on your browser and click the "vote" button again, you don't even have to check the question box, it remains checked. It's fun while it lasts, which won't be forever.
Wed at 10:53pm

Amjad Doumani
Just voted Israel down on all counts.
Wed at 11:13pm

Alaqsamassacre Eighttenninety
Right ON !
Yesterday at 4:44am

Jeff Prager
AMAZING what certified polls will say about public opinion!
Yesterday at 5:05am

Robert Hand
I believe. I DO believe. Alleluia, I do believe.
http://tinyurl.com/y7uge65
Yesterday at 10:01am


Here's when it starts getting interesting. Although Jeff Prager and company readily admitted their fraud, they seem genuinely confused when the World Jewish Congress invalidated the 1,700 clicks from Jeffy's computer . Filled with self righteous indignation, they condemn the "Zionists" for invalidating their fraud.


Peter K. Vickers
The polls have been stuffed or changed arbitrarily from when you lifted these screen shots. The tragic and misguided comments after the poll I took this morning just strengthen my resolve. Zionism is a racist ideology and one that poses an existential threat to all human beings and the future of the human species, and global and Israeli Zionists are the most dangerous, arrogant, delusional people on the planet and MUST be brought to heel.
Yesterday at 11:28am

Peter K. Vickers
I posted most of my comment above after the poll, but it was not posted. I do not think we should be drawing attention to these polls as the Zionistas have legions of people with the time to load the results in their favour, and many Sheeple believe such polls reflect real public opinion.
Yesterday at 11:39am

Mary Shepard
I posted a comment here earlier but it seems to have disappeared.

Beware of these informal polls which can be so easily doctored. Their results mean nothing, unfortunately.
Yesterday at 11:44am

Betty Molchany
I just checked ant the poll count is greater than ever in favor of the Zionists. And they never posted my comments that I could see.
Yesterday at 11:53am

Peter K. Vickers
Time to take down this note and move on I think. What say you Jeff?
Yesterday at 12:00pm

Mary Shepard
A lot of anti-Islam comments on that website.
Yesterday at 12:06pm

Jeff Prager
I don't think it's time to take this post down but perhaps it might be time to pursue the issue of fixed public opinion polls further, would anyone agree?
Yesterday at 12:51pm

Crystal Gaza Robert
My comment didn't show and I agree with Peter!
Yesterday at 1:07pm

Mary Shepard
I second that!
Yesterday at 1:12pm

Jeff Prager
It's a bit scary but this is something that needs to be pursued simply from a moral perspective. The World Jewish Congress holds significant sway over public opinion and if that public opinion is contrived it's called fraud.
Yesterday at 1:17pm

Betty Molchany
I think the poll and Jeff's reports on it are evidence of manipulation by the WJC. Yes, we did it as well, but Jeff's actions were not to mislead but to test his assumptions about the site and especially because our comments weren't being posted. I would not remove this evidence.
Yesterday at 1:29pm

Peter K. Vickers
But Jeff you are assuming that the Sheeple can discern the difference or that they even care.
Yesterday at 1:31pm

Jeff Prager
I'm not assuming anyone cares because few do. BUT, I care and that means I have a responsibility whether anyone else cares or not. If I were the ONLY person that cared it would be no different. And sometimes it feels like I am. That doesn't prevent me from having an all-consuming desire for truth.
Yesterday at 2:08pm

Peter K. Vickers
Agreed. I just don't know whether this is helpful in our struggle against Zionist Israel.
Yesterday at 2:19pm

Mike Vail
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Mark Twain, attributed to Benjamin Disraeli
3 hours ago

Jeff Prager
True, and the World Jewish Congress manufactures wonderful statistics.
about an hour ago

Mike Vail
>>> do you honestly believe AIPAC and the WJC to be above reproach on everything they say and do, just because they're Jewish organizations? That's what I call racism.
about an hour ago

Jeff Prager
Mike, I would expect that the World Jewish Congress might conflate the statistics. What I wouldn't expect is that they would do it in such an easily discoverable way. It's not racism. It's the exposure of stupidity.
about an hour ago



Jeff Prager actually says " The World Jewish Congress holds significant sway over public opinion and if that public opinion is contrived it's called fraud."
Why yes, it is, Jeffy. Yes it is. And 1,700 clicks from the computer in your Mommys basement in an effort to manipulate a poll is precisely that. Perhaps Jeff, if you had truth and history on your side, you wouldn't have the need to lie and manipulate. And perhaps, Jeff, if you had a life, with real friends and real activities, you wouldn't be hunched over the tiny blue screen of Mom's computer for hours on end. Yes, the same Jeff Prager who claims he has "an all-consuming desire for truth." has no trouble lying, cheating and manipulating opinions to further his agenda. Can you say "Hypocrite" children? I think you can.


Michael Thaidigsmann of the World Jewish Congress found Jeff's manipulation of little consequence and briefly stated:

"We had indeed a manipulation attempt for the poll and received 1,700 votes from one person somewhere in the US. This has been fixed now and that poll can only be voted in once per computer."